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Forecasting Across contexts

Homework Instructions
Please address the following aspects for each of the scenarios on the next
three slides.
1. What forecasting method would you recommend?
2. Why would that method be appropriate?
3. What data, resources, etc. would you need to implement your
recommended method?
4. What challenges do you foresee when trying to implement your
recommended method? (Hint: data, resources, cost, etc.)
Short, one-to-two sentence answers per question should be enough.
Scenario 1
A seasoned film producer is contemplating a new venture producing what she
believes will be the next blockbuster TV series. Although she seems to have a
hard time deciding on how big a budget to line up for the project, she knows
from her extensive experience that any budget she ends up deciding on will
have to depend on the TV series anticipated revenues. Having worked with you
on past ventures, she is convinced that you are the right person to help her
estimate the TV series revenue generation potential. How would you go about
assisting with this high-stake task?
(In other words, tell me how you would produce an estimate of the TV series future revenues.)
Scenario 2
You are the Chief Financial Officer at a major multinational pharmaceutical
company. The VP of R&D has approached you regarding a one-of-a-kind drug
that she believes her team can develop over the next two-to-three years. She
emphatically argued that the drug has the potential to cure a disease that has
been shown to affect a well-defined demographic in the Indian subcontinent.
How would you go about deciding whether to pursue this project or not?
(Be thorough in your answer. You can use hypotheticals as you see fit. Hint: A good forecast would
help, but how would you go about producing one? )
Scenario 3
You are a seasoned forecasting expert working for a major consumer
packaged goods (CPG) company in the food industry. One of the promising
college graduates that you just hired into your team is assigned the task of
forecasting demand for one of the companys flagship breakfast cereals. He is
nervous about the task and is asking for guidance. Knowing that the product in
question has been a category leader for close to a decade, what guidance
would you provide to your new hire? How should he approach his new task?
(Tell me how you would recommend the new hire produce his forecast.)

 

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